Published in Scientific Papers. Series A. Agronomy, Vol. LIX
Written by Lilia ȚĂRANU
In present study, relationships between observed mean temperature and precipitation during growing season and average annual crop yield based on statistical data at the Republic of Moldova’s agricultural enterprises of various categories were explored and then used to estimate potential impacts of climate change scenarios on anticipated average yields by 2035 (2016–2035), by 2065 (2046–2065), and by 2100 (2081-2100) on national and district level, based on the projected changes from the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble of the 21 GCMs used for AR5 of the IPCC, covering the end of 20th (reference period) and 21st (scenario) centuries introduced by three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5, and RCP 2.6. The typical winter (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer (Zea mays, Helianthus annuus L., Beta vulgaris L. and Nicotiana L.) crops were considered in this study in order to analyze the specific interactions between the changing climate and crops having different seasonal growth cycles. In these circumstances, without undertaken any adaptation measures, it can be expected on national level by 2100: a significant drop in the productivity for grain corn, from 34% (RCP 2.6) to 67% (RCP 4.5); and winter wheat, from 22% (RCP 2.6) to 46% (RCP 4.5); a medium drop in the productivity for sunflower from 16% (RCP 2.6) to 57% (RCP 8.5), respectively for sugar beet, from 9% (RCP 2.6) to 37% (RCP 8.5); and for tobacco, from 10% (RCP 2.6) to 30% (RCP 8.5), in comparison with the average productivity of the Republic of Moldova’s major agricultural crops in the most recent period of 1981-2010. Due to changes in climatic conditions in the Republic of Moldova, by the end of the XXI century, the cultivation of grain corn and winter wheat will be impossible according to the RCP 8.5 high emission scenario.
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